Influence of comorbidities and clinical prediction model on neurological prognostication post out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.
Heart Asia · 2018-01-01 · Observational study
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Survival with good neurological function post out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), defined as cerebral performance category (CPC) 1-2, ranges from 1.6% to 3% in Asia. We aim to study the influence of comorbidities and peri-OHCA event factors on neurological recovery and develop a model that can help clinicians predict neurological function among patients with post-OHCA admitted to the hospital. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. All patients admitted post-OHCA from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2015 to a tertiary centre were identified through the hospital OHCA registry. Patients who survived till hospital admission were included. Logistic regression was used to identify patient and peri-arrest factors that were significantly associated with survival with CPC 1-2. The significant factors for survival with CPC 1-2 were then put into a multivariable model and the discriminative ability was tested using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration and internal validation of the model were also performed. External validation in a small prospective cohort was also performed. RESULTS: In our derivation cohort of 129 patients, 30.23% survived with CPC 1-2. Significant factors associated with survival with good neurological outcomes were age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index ≤5, time to first return of spontaneous circulation ≤40 min, the presence of immediate bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and shockable rhythms. We also developed a nomogram which showed good internal (ROC curve 0.84; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.91) and external validation (ROC curve 0.90; 95% CI 0.81 to 1.00).